Our Standardized Unexpected Price (SUP) metric continues to show a decline in the price of large hotels and positive momentum for the price of small hotels. Although investors are currently experiencing positive leverage, with return on invested capital greater than borrowing costs, dark clouds have appeared in the form of higher interest rates for hotels, higher credit spreads, and higher volatility relative to other commercial real estate. Our financing, risk, and early warning indicators all continue to suggest that hotel prices should start to level off or decline. This is report number 18 of the index series.
Liu, C. H., Nowak, A. D., & White, R. M. (2016). First Quarter 2016: Second Verse, Same as the First [Electronic article]. Center for Real Estate and Finance Reports Hotel Indices, 5(2), 1-22.